In the case of the deterioration of the European debt crisis, the value of bulk commodities has fallen widely, but steel prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. In addition, the shutdown of some domestic steel mills has led to the gradual recovery of the long-term decision of the mall. However, the author believes that in the case of the suspension of production, the direct reduction of raw material demand will also shift the cost of steel stocks. In addition to entering the traditional cold season, steel prices will easily fall in August.
The short-term environment of the external shopping malls is difficult to change, and the negative impact of the steel itself. At that time, the steel price has not bottomed out, and the futures price will fall to 3,500 yuan/ton.
Since the European debt crisis has been speculated, the EU has chosen many ways, and Greece has once again seen a funding gap of tens of billions of euros after two rounds of fund assistance and debt write-downs. In addition, the Spanish government bond yields remain high, the risk is on the verge, and the crisis in the countries such as Italy and Ireland is unresolved, and the overall market in Europe is in jeopardy. As a rescuer of this crisis, Germany and France have also had disharmonious elements in the domestic political situation. The leaders of the two countries have turned their minds to stabilize the euro. In a short time, the European problem in the stainless steel tube is difficult to dispose of, and the financial help can not deal with the crisis. The long-term waiting will kill the investors, and the short-term risk-averse situation will return to the mall again. The future market will be reduced and the commodity value will be difficult. Continue to go up.
The stock market as a barometer of the economy often reflects the economic recovery and weakness. The domestic stock market has even hit new lows, showing signs of a weakening domestic economy. It is difficult to stabilize in the short term. Therefore, in the case that the situation in the national watch is negative, the steel price rebound is relatively short, and the market may return to the downtrend channel.
Recently, due to the accelerated decline in steel prices, the primary steel mills in some regions have stopped production and maintenance of blast furnaces. The production line decided at the time of the year will affect the output of 1.99 million tons. In terms of production, the production of bumps is very small, and the support for steel prices is extremely weak.
On the other hand, the suspension of production not only brings about a reduction in production capacity, but also reduces the demand for raw materials. The tides of coal enterprises in various places have increased, the value of coal has accelerated, and supply and demand have been seriously unbalanced. In terms of iron ore, stocks are still at a high level in history. Although the value has been lowered, it is still around US$125/ton, which is still far from the cost of ore. Comparing the value of arrival in the past three years, it is not difficult to find that there is still a large room for decline in the later stage of iron ore value. Therefore, in the future, the expected cost of steel production will also fall sharply, and the transmission will be scornful, and the value of steel will also be under pressure.
Therefore, in the case that demand cannot be improved and the destocking process is slower, de-capacity is the primary method for dealing with the contradiction between supply and demand of steel shopping malls. To reach this goal, steel prices may face a new round of accelerated decline.
Steel prices are hard to rise in August
In the recent years, the trend of spot value of steel products found that the probability of rising futures value reached 100% in July, and the probability of rising spot value reached 80%, only falling in 2008. Steel futures were listed in March 2009. They did not experience the market in 2008, but the crisis environment in this year was significantly worse than in 2008. Due to the similar apparent environment, the market price in July this year is similar to that in 2008. In August 2008, the spot value of steel fell by 3.04%, and it fell across the bumps in July. By analogy, under the premise that the apparent environment is difficult to recover, the steel price drop in August this year will exceed 7%, that is, 7 The month fell bumps. According to the futures value calculation, the futures price will fall back to the 3,500 yuan / ton line.
In summary, the external shopping malls are difficult to change in the short-term environment, and the adverse effects of stainless steel pipe steel itself, the steel price has not yet bottomed, the price will fall to 3,500 yuan / ton.
